Gulf States Intensify Diplomacy to Deter Possible U.S. Strike on Iran
Regional Powers Seek to Prevent a Dangerous Escalation
Arab governments across the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, are stepping up quiet diplomatic efforts to dissuade Washington from launching a military strike against Iran. According to regional officials and analysts, the lobbying efforts reflect deep unease among Gulf states about the potential for a new conflict that could devastate the region’s fragile security and economic recovery.
These countries, many of which are traditional allies of the United States, fear that direct military action against Tehran could trigger widespread retaliation, destabilize oil markets, and derail years of cautious rapprochement following a decade marked by proxy wars and diplomatic freezes. Behind the scenes, senior envoys from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and other capitals are urging restraint, emphasizing dialogue and de-escalation as the only viable path forward.
Background: A History of Volatile Relations
The rivalry between Iran and its Arab neighbors stretches back over four decades, rooted in ideological, sectarian, and geopolitical divides that have shaped Middle Eastern politics since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The revolution’s call for Islamic governance under Tehran’s influence sparked fears across the Sunni-led monarchies of the Gulf, leading to the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981 — a bloc that sought to contain Iranian influence and coordinate on regional security.
Over the years, tensions have ebbed and flowed. The Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s served as an early example of how instability could ripple across the region, threatening both maritime stability in the Strait of Hormuz and global oil supplies. The 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq later altered the balance of power, indirectly strengthening Iran’s regional role through its ties to political factions in Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a.
By the mid-2010s, proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon had become flashpoints for competition between Riyadh and Tehran. The subsequent attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, which the United States and its allies blamed on Iran, cemented Gulf suspicion of Tehran’s regional ambitions. Yet, despite persistent rivalry, regional leaders have increasingly recognized that prolonged confrontation offers no sustainable solution.
A New Chapter of Diplomacy
Since 2021, both Iran and Saudi Arabia have explored limited rapprochement efforts, culminating in a China-brokered deal in 2023 to restore diplomatic relations. While the agreement was initially greeted with skepticism, it has facilitated cautious steps toward de-escalation, allowing trade discussions and consular visits to resume after years of hostility.
Now, facing renewed uncertainty over U.S. policy toward Iran, these same governments are rallying to preserve that fragile progress. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have reportedly conveyed their concerns to Washington through back channels, urging against any military campaign that could undo diplomatic gains and ignite retaliatory attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Analysts note that Gulf states are not motivated by sympathy for Iran’s leadership but by a pragmatic understanding of regional interdependence. For these nations, peace across the Persian Gulf has become an economic imperative as much as a strategic one.
Economic Stakes and Global Energy Risks
At the heart of Gulf nations’ caution lies their shared dependency on oil exports and maritime security. Any military conflict in the Persian Gulf — which handles roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum shipments — would send shockwaves through global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly vulnerable; even temporary disruptions there could spike crude prices and threaten the stability of national budgets from Riyadh to Muscat.
Following the 2020 oil price crash and subsequent pandemic-induced recession, economies across the region have been working to diversify through ambitious projects under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s long-term innovation strategies. Renewed conflict could derail these modernization plans by diverting resources and deterring foreign investment.
Financial analysts warn that even limited U.S. airstrikes could lead to unpredictable Iranian responses, potentially targeting shipping routes, energy infrastructure, or U.S. bases across the Gulf. Such escalation risks would not only disrupt regional commerce but also threaten the global recovery from inflationary energy shocks seen during earlier crises.
Domestic Caution in Gulf Capitals
While Arab leaders remain wary of Iran’s regional influence, they also face domestic pressures that make stability a political necessity. Younger populations in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly focused on economic opportunity, tourism, and technology rather than regional conflict. Public opinion in these countries favors modernization and global integration, not another protracted confrontation.
Officials within Gulf governments have privately voiced concern that renewed hostility could erode public trust in government-led economic reform programs. Moreover, prolonged insecurity could drive oil insurers to raise risk premiums for shipping through the Gulf — a move that would impact domestic fuel prices and consumer confidence even in wealthy states.
Strategic Shifts in U.S.-Gulf Relations
The current phase of U.S.-Gulf relations is marked by cautious recalibration. While the United States remains the primary security guarantor for the region, its strategic priorities have shifted in recent years toward countering China’s influence and managing alliances through diplomacy rather than large-scale military deployments.
Arab diplomats have interpreted Washington’s evolving posture as both an opportunity and a warning. With the memory of extended U.S. conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan still fresh, Gulf leaders recognize that a new escalation with Iran might not receive sustained Western support. Instead, they are betting on dialogue and regional mechanisms to manage disputes, reflecting a broader desire for autonomy in regional decision-making.
Still, Gulf governments continue to maintain close security ties with the United States, hosting major American military installations that play critical roles in counterterrorism and maritime security. This dual approach — reliance on U.S. security partnerships while pursuing independent diplomacy — underscores the delicate balancing act facing Gulf capitals.
Lessons From Past Crises
Historical precedent also guides the Gulf’s current diplomatic calculus. The aftermath of previous confrontations — from the 1987 “tanker war” in the Strait of Hormuz to the 2019 drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities — revealed how quickly regional skirmishes can escalate beyond political control. Each episode brought sharp spikes in global oil prices and highlighted the region’s limited capacity to contain crises once hostilities began.
In both cases, Gulf states found themselves dependent on international mediation to restore calm. By preemptively lobbying for restraint, today’s leaders hope to prevent a repeat of those destabilizing cycles. The emerging regional consensus emphasizes preventive diplomacy — a strategy aimed not only at deterring U.S. strikes but also at pushing for sustained talks between Tehran and its rivals.
International Reactions and Market Sentiment
Global markets have responded cautiously to recent reports of heightened U.S.-Iranian tension. Oil prices have inched upward in response to risk assessments, though analysts emphasize that no concrete military action appears imminent. Financial institutions have urged clients to monitor developments closely, warning that even a modest confrontation could fuel further volatility.
Meanwhile, European and Asian governments with stakes in Gulf energy stability have privately urged all sides to de-escalate. China, as both a mediator and major oil consumer, has also encouraged dialogue, seeking to protect the energy supply chain vital to its economy.
Outlook: Rising Stakes in a Crowded Region
The Gulf’s efforts to steer the United States away from military confrontation reflect a pragmatic shift in regional strategy. After decades of conflict, many Middle Eastern governments now see stability as their most valuable currency — essential for attracting investors, building innovation economies, and managing domestic expectations.
Whether these diplomatic efforts will succeed remains uncertain. As tensions fluctuate between Tehran and Washington, Gulf leaders will continue their balancing act, seeking to maintain U.S. security ties while asserting their own vision of regional peace.
The outcome will have lasting implications not only for the Middle East but also for global energy markets and international security. In an increasingly multipolar world, the ability of Gulf states to prevent another war could determine the region’s trajectory for decades to come.