Nearly a Million New Yorkers Say They Would Leave if Zohran Mamdani Wins Mayoral Election, Poll Finds
Rising Concerns Over City’s Political Direction
A new poll has found that nearly a million New York City residents may pack up and leave if Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist candidate, wins the mayoral election currently underway. The survey, conducted in late October, indicates that approximately 765,000 residents — roughly 9 percent of the city’s population — said they would “definitely” move out should Mamdani take office. An additional 25 percent, or about 2.12 million New Yorkers, said they would consider relocating, citing fears of rising taxes, increased regulation, and potential degradation in public safety and business conditions.
The numbers paint a striking picture of anxiety among New Yorkers as the city stands at a political crossroads. The prospect of a socialist mayor has polarized residents, rekindling debates about what kind of city New York can afford to be — and who can afford to stay.
Economic Anxiety Drives Potential Exodus
The results reveal a growing sense of unease across economic lines, but the strongest signals came from high-income earners. Seven percent of residents earning over $250,000 annually said they are preparing to move if Mamdani wins, a figure that alarms both city planners and economists. In a city where the top 1 percent of earners contribute more than 40 percent of income tax revenue, an exodus of upper-income residents could leave a deep fiscal wound.
City economists warn that even a modest departure rate among high earners could significantly impact tax collections. The top tiers of income earners not only sustain local coffers but also anchor demand in industries like real estate, hospitality, and retail. If tens of thousands of these residents exit, the ripple effect through the city’s service economy could be profound.
In interviews accompanying the poll, several participants described their fears in stark terms. Some called a Mamdani-led city “a disaster,” while others said living under his policies would be “hell.” These reactions highlight the intensity of emotion surrounding the race and the deep ideological divisions shaping New York’s electorate.
Demographic Trends Behind the Poll
Breaking down the numbers reveals clear demographic distinctions. Men expressed a stronger intent to leave than women, and older voters — particularly retirees — displayed the greatest sense of urgency. Staten Island residents, long known for their more conservative leanings, reported the highest percentage of those planning to move. White residents also showed greater likelihood of departure compared to other ethnic groups, according to the survey.
Geographic preferences among those planning to exit are also revealing. The Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee emerged as the top destinations for would-be movers, chosen for their comparatively lower taxes, lower cost of living, and reputation for more business-friendly climates. For many respondents, these states represent both a financial and cultural refuge from New York’s increasingly progressive politics.
A City Defined by Mobility and Reinvention
Population shifts are hardly new to New York City. The metropolis has endured waves of migration and outflow throughout its history — from the suburban flight of the 1970s to the financial exodus following the pandemic. Each departure wave reshaped the city in unique ways. Yet, the current potential outflow is notable for its political motivations, underscoring how ideological polarization has become entwined with economic decision-making.
During the 1970s fiscal crisis, thousands of middle-class families fled for the suburbs as New York teetered on bankruptcy. The post-pandemic era saw a similar, though temporary, decline as remote work made relocation feasible. While many residents eventually returned, today’s poll suggests an ideological split rather than a mere quality-of-life calculation. The question, many analysts say, is whether the city can absorb a politically driven population loss at a time when its fiscal recovery remains fragile.
Historical Context of Political Anxiety in NYC
Throughout its history, New York has been a bellwether for how politics influence demographics. Mayoral administrations from Fiorello LaGuardia to Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg have each represented moments of ideological realignment. The city’s fortunes often rose or fell in tandem with shifts in its tax base and business confidence.
The prospect of a socialist mayor evokes comparisons to the 1970s, when radical movements reshaped local politics and economic turmoil forced deep cuts to public services. For some residents, Mamdani’s economic platform — expanding social housing, imposing new taxes on luxury real estate, and reducing police funding — signals a return to that unstable past. For others, his agenda represents long-overdue reform aimed at reducing inequality and addressing chronic housing shortages.
Business Leaders and Economists Weigh In
Business groups have sounded alarms over the survey results. The Partnership for New York City, a prominent civic organization, released a statement warning that even the perception of a business-unfriendly administration could accelerate corporate relocations already underway. Over the past five years, several major financial and technology firms have expanded their presence in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina, lured by tax incentives and lower operating costs.
Economists note that while the poll reflects sentiment rather than confirmed decisions, perception itself can shape market behavior. Residential real estate agents report a surge in inquiries from clients exploring out-of-state moves, particularly in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn where high-income professionals dominate the housing market. Rental prices have begun to fluctuate in anticipation of election outcomes, with some landlords offering short-term leases for tenants seeking flexibility.
Regional Comparisons Highlight Broader Trends
New York’s predicament mirrors patterns seen in other U.S. metropolitan areas where progressive taxation and regulatory policies have sparked migration debates. California, for instance, saw nearly half a million residents relocate between 2020 and 2023, citing similar complaints of high costs and political friction. Cities like Austin, Miami, and Charlotte have emerged as major beneficiaries of this internal migration, attracting both individuals and corporations leaving coastal hubs.
However, some experts caution against assuming a complete urban unraveling. They point to historical resilience: New York’s economy has rebounded from crises ranging from 9/11 to the 2008 financial collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic. The city’s cultural capital, global connectivity, and diversified industries often counterbalance cyclical departures.
Public Sentiment as Voting Nears
As voting enters its final days, the race between Mamdani and his closest competitors remains too close to call. More than 735,000 early votes have already been cast — a record for a municipal election in the city. Analysts say turnout among moderate and high-income voters could decide the race, particularly in outer boroughs where skepticism of left-wing governance runs high.
Outside polling stations in Queens and Staten Island, conversations among voters reflected the city’s polarized mood. Some expressed optimism about the possibility of transformative policies addressing wealth inequality, while others voiced fears that dramatic changes could unravel the fiscal and social balance that keeps the city functioning.
Potential Impact on Real Estate and Local Services
Real estate experts are already modeling scenarios in which even a small outflow of upper-income residents impacts property tax revenue, school funding, and municipal services. New York relies heavily on property and income taxes, making it especially vulnerable to demographic shifts among its highest earners. A sustained departure of just a few percentage points from the top tax bracket could translate into billions in lost annual revenue.
Urban planners warn that such losses could complicate efforts to maintain public safety levels, repair infrastructure, and expand affordable housing — ironically undermining many of the policy goals that Mamdani’s campaign champions.
Looking Ahead: Stability or Transformation?
Whether mass relocation actually materializes remains uncertain. History suggests that polling about political or economic threats often overstates behavioral changes. However, the survey’s signal is clear: a significant portion of New Yorkers are anxious about the city’s trajectory, and their faith in its long-term manageability is being tested.
As the election concludes, all eyes are on the next chapter for America’s largest city — whether it remains a magnet for ambition and enterprise or enters a new era defined by ideological transformation and outmigration. For many, the question is no longer just who governs New York, but who will still call it home in the years to come.